Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.327650 2.464937 2.614439 2.791024 2.996238 3.230310 3.522313
2025-08-31 2.173438 2.343023 2.535580 2.774528 3.069494 3.431453 3.927112
2025-09-07 2.087660 2.279687 2.504547 2.794403 3.170234 3.661755 4.397464
2025-09-14 1.967462 2.162821 2.395319 2.701268 3.109091 3.662932 4.540152
2025-09-21 1.903508 2.107607 2.354827 2.687695 3.145671 3.796166 4.903021
2025-09-28 1.833522 2.039954 2.293007 2.639180 3.126291 3.841446 5.128690
2025-10-05 1.815281 2.034679 2.308649 2.692947 3.253818 4.124770 5.862144
2025-10-12 1.809067 2.043344 2.341626 2.771456 3.424881 4.509169 6.987781
2025-10-19 1.769940 2.007369 2.312845 2.759621 3.454708 4.654713 7.658027
2025-10-26 1.740294 1.982146 2.296722 2.764086 3.509638 4.855435 8.624225
2025-11-02 1.691734 1.930142 2.241611 2.707344 3.458085 4.839436 8.915233
2025-11-09 1.658630 1.897396 2.211477 2.685868 3.463316 4.938936 9.706756
2025-11-16 1.627041 1.866735 2.184456 2.669809 3.480418 5.076473 10.883392
2025-11-23 1.598515 1.839066 2.160226 2.656151 3.499747 5.223016 12.397410
2025-11-30 1.582455 1.827409 2.157671 2.675307 3.578907 5.527484 15.823447
2025-12-07 1.535575 1.772590 2.091826 2.591407 3.461125 5.325763 14.901397
2025-12-14 1.513110 1.750481 2.072045 2.579737 3.477483 5.468544 17.697758
2025-12-21 1.482121 1.715934 2.033313 2.535952 3.429681 5.436254 18.703266
2025-12-28 1.480371 1.721335 2.052198 2.585646 3.565457 5.936673 35.851857
2026-01-04 1.484709 1.735126 2.083649 2.657763 3.755669 6.695791 NaN
2026-01-11 1.466253 1.716534 2.066500 2.647344 3.774347 6.912154 NaN
2026-01-18 1.452582 1.704291 2.058359 2.651732 3.825092 7.270375 NaN
2026-01-25 1.424843 1.671624 2.018692 2.600146 3.749208 7.117010 NaN